If you're buying, selling or letting in 2026, you've probably seen the headlines — "prices up", "prices down", "biggest drop in years" — often in the same week. They can't all be right, and mostly they're just measuring different things. This report pulls the real numbers together in one place, in plain English, so you can see what the UK property market is actually doing right now.
We've drawn every figure from the official and recognised sources — HM Land Registry and the ONS, the Bank of England, HMRC, Nationwide, Halifax, Rightmove, Zoopla, RICS and Savills — and dated each one. This is a UK-wide picture, not a London one: 100 Key Properties is a growing network of local agents across London and beyond, so where England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are moving differently, we say so.
Figures below are correct as of early July 2026 and reflect the most recent monthly data. The market can — and does — change month to month, so treat these as a snapshot, not a promise. Always check the latest before you make a decision.
The headline: a slow, uneven, but mildly positive market
The simplest honest summary of the UK market in mid-2026 is this: prices are broadly flat to slightly up, sales activity is recovering, and the North is pulling ahead of the South. There's no boom and no crash — just a steady, price-sensitive market where realistic sellers do well and over-optimistic ones sit and wait.
Three things are shaping it. First, mortgage rates are higher than the cheap-money years but have started easing. Second, there are more homes for sale than at any time in over a decade, which hands buyers negotiating power and keeps a lid on prices. Third, the cheaper, higher-yielding North and Northern Ireland are growing fast while London and the South East drift sideways or dip.
A buyer's market with plenty of choice, prices barely moving on average, and a clear North–South split — activity is up, but pricing right is everything.
House prices: why the indices disagree (and what they actually say)
You'll see five different "average UK house prices" quoted, and they range from about £270,000 to £376,000. That's not because anyone is wrong — they measure different stages of the journey. Here's the latest from each, and what each one is really telling you.
| Index | Average price | Annual change | As of | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONS / HM Land Registry | £270,000 | +3.8% | Apr 2026 | Completed sales — the official record |
| Nationwide | £278,784 | +2.2% | Jun 2026 | Its own mortgage approvals |
| Halifax | £298,806 | +0.5% | May 2026 | Its own mortgage approvals |
| Zoopla | £271,900 | +1.4% | Jun 2026 | Agreed sales + valuation model |
| Rightmove | £376,191 | −0.5% | Jun 2026 | Asking prices of new listings |
The key thing to understand: the official HM Land Registry figure is the most complete but the most lagged — it covers every completed sale (cash and mortgage) but runs about two months behind because it waits for deals to finish. Nationwide and Halifax are timelier but only reflect homes bought with their own mortgages. Rightmove's number is the highest because it's asking prices on brand-new listings — what sellers hope to get, not what they achieve — so it's a mood-reading of sellers, not a sold price.
A useful rule of thumb: Rightmove tells you what sellers want, HM Land Registry tells you what buyers actually paid — and the gap between them is where negotiation happens.
Rightmove flagged that June 2026 brought the biggest June asking-price fall in 14 years (down 0.6% on the month) — a sign that with a decade-high number of homes for sale, sellers are having to price more keenly to stand out.
The four nations: a real North–South and cross-border split
"The UK market" is really several markets moving at different speeds. Using the official ONS / HM Land Registry figures for the year to April 2026:
| Nation | Average price | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| England | £291,000 | +3.9% |
| Scotland | £192,000 | +2.8% |
| Wales | £212,000 | +3.5% |
| Northern Ireland | £198,000 (Q1 2026) | +7.4% |
Within England, the split is just as sharp. On Nationwide's June 2026 regional data, the strongest annual growth is in Northern Ireland (+8.6%) and the North of England, while London is up only around 1.6% and, on the ONS measure, actually down about 2.1% year-on-year. Zoopla's June figures tell the same story: North East and North West around +3.5%, Scotland +3.0%, but London at −0.2% (its ninth straight month of small annual falls) and the South East at −0.3%.
Homes in the North, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are cheaper relative to local wages, so higher mortgage rates bite less. Buyers there can still afford to move; in pricey London and the South East, the same rates stretch budgets further, so prices stall.
A note on Scotland and Northern Ireland: the buying process differs from England and Wales. Scotland uses Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) instead of Stamp Duty, and offers are usually binding earlier ("missives"). Northern Ireland pays Stamp Duty like England but has its own conveyancing quirks. Wales uses Land Transaction Tax (LTT). If you're moving across a border, the tax and the timeline change — worth checking early.
Interest rates and mortgages: easing, but not cheap
The cost of borrowing drives almost everything else. At its meeting ending 18 June 2026, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7–2 to hold the base rate at 3.75% — with two members wanting a rise to 4%. CPI inflation was 2.8% in May, but services inflation had ticked up to 3.7%, which is why the Bank is holding rather than cutting. The next decision is due 30 July 2026.
Mortgage rates have been drifting down. Here's roughly where average fixed deals sat in June 2026, per Moneyfacts:
| Deal type | Average rate (Jun 2026) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year fixed | ~5.5–5.7% | Falling — biggest monthly drop in over a year |
| 5-year fixed | ~5.5–5.6% | Falling |
| Bank of England base rate | 3.75% | Held since June |
These are market averages. Your actual rate depends on your deposit, credit profile and lender, and deals change weekly — sometimes daily. Treat any rate here as illustrative, not a quote. A good broker will find you a sharper deal than the average, and rates can change, so we'll always say "check the latest".
Worked example. On a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, the difference between 5.6% and 4.6% is roughly £150 a month — about £1,800 a year. That's why even a small move in rates changes what buyers can afford, and why the market has firmed up as rates have edged down.
Sales activity: quietly recovering
Prices grab the headlines, but transaction volumes — how many homes actually change hands — are the better measure of a healthy market. Here the news is genuinely positive. HMRC's latest figures (published 30 June 2026) show 98,450 UK residential sales completed in May 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis — 17% higher than May 2025, though 2% down on April.
More sales completing means chains are moving, mortgages are being approved, and buyers who paused during the higher-rate period are coming back. It's a more encouraging signal than the flat price figures alone suggest.
Sales figures lag the decision to buy by two to four months (that's how long a purchase takes to complete), so May's strong numbers reflect offers agreed back in late winter and early spring — when rates started falling. Momentum, not a one-off.
The rental market: rents still rising, but more slowly
For tenants and landlords alike, rents are the number that matters. On the ONS Private Rent figures for May 2026, the average UK rent reached £1,383 a month, up 3.3% over the year. That's still rising, but the pace has cooled from the double-digit jumps of a couple of years ago. By nation and for London:
| Area | Average rent | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| UK | £1,383 | +3.3% |
| England | £1,442 | +3.4% |
| Wales | £836 | +4.7% |
| Scotland | £1,009 | +1.0% |
| Northern Ireland | £876 (Mar 2026) | +3.3% |
| London | £2,294 | +2.0% |
Two forces are at work. Demand is still strong, but a wave of new rules — the Renters' Rights Act 2025 (Section 21 abolished from May 2026), the coming EPC band C requirement by 2030, and Making Tax Digital for landlords from April 2026 — has some smaller landlords selling up, which tightens supply. Slower rent growth reflects the ceiling of what tenants can afford more than any surge in available homes.
On yields: the buy-to-let map mirrors the sales map. Gross rental yields are highest in the North West (roughly 7–9% in cities like Manchester and Liverpool), the North East and parts of Scotland (6–8%), and lowest in London and the South (typically 3–4%), where high prices outpace rents. Net yield — after management, maintenance, insurance and void periods — is usually 1–3 percentage points lower, so always run the real numbers rather than the headline gross figure.
What the forecasters expect for the rest of 2026
No one can predict the market precisely — and anyone who claims certainty is selling something. But the recognised forecasters broadly agree on the shape of the year: modest, uneven, and steadier as rates ease. Here's where the main names stand.
- Rightmove expects new-seller asking prices to rise about 2% across 2026, calling it a buyer's market with strong choice and more room to negotiate.
- Zoopla expects price growth to ease toward around 1% by year-end, with total sales finishing 6–8% below 2025 at roughly 1.1 million completions.
- Savills is the most cautious on price this year, forecasting a −2% dip for 2026 as higher mortgage costs weigh on demand, but +18.5% cumulative growth to 2030 — with the North, Scotland and Wales outperforming.
- RICS members (May 2026 survey) saw prices still edging down in the near term, but a net +6% expecting prices higher over the next 12 months and sales moving to neutral — i.e. the worst may be behind.
The consensus isn't a boom or a bust. It's a flat-to-low-single-digit year, with the North outperforming the South, and a market that firms up as mortgage rates settle.
Notice the disagreement between −2% (Savills) and +2% (Rightmove). That's normal — they measure different things (achieved prices vs asking prices) and make different rate assumptions. The safe read is: expect roughly flat, prepare for either side of zero, and don't bank on quick gains.
What this means for you
Numbers only matter if they change what you do. Here's the honest takeaway for each situation.
If you're buying: you're in a stronger position than you've been in years. Choice is at a decade high and a third of listings have already had a price cut, so there's room to negotiate — don't pay the asking price by reflex. Get a Mortgage in Principle first so you know your real budget, and remember that a slightly higher rate on a home you can actually buy beats waiting for a cut that may not come. In the cheaper North, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, your money stretches noticeably further.
If you're selling: the market rewards realistic pricing and punishes optimism. With so many homes competing, an over-ambitious asking price means sitting unsold while fresher listings sell around you. Price it right from day one and you'll likely sell faster and, often, for more than a home that's been reduced twice. Activity is up, so well-priced homes are moving.
If you're investing: the yield map has moved north. The strongest gross yields and the strongest forecast price growth are both outside London and the South East right now. But factor in the new-rules cost stack — EPC upgrades by 2030, Making Tax Digital from 2026, and the Renters' Rights Act — before you buy. Run net yields, not gross, and treat the tax figures as "confirm my number" rather than fixed.
Every figure in this report is dated and sourced, but the market moves. Rates can change, indices revise, and rules evolve. Before you commit to anything, check the latest position for your area and your situation — or ask us, and we'll tell you where you stand.
We're a growing network of local agents across London and beyond, so we watch these numbers for the areas we actually work in — not just the national headline. If you're weighing up a move, we'll give you a free, no-obligation valuation and an honest read on what your local market is doing, in plain English or Lithuanian. We can also point you to a trusted mortgage broker and solicitor and coordinate the moving parts, so you're deciding on real numbers rather than headlines. And if you decide to sell, we do it for a 1% sole-agency fee.